Savage Words: Knoxville Nationals are exciting, and predictable

The Knoxville Nationals are next week. The event is one of the greatest weeks of the year for us motorsports junkies.

Now in its 64th year, the Nationals is the premier sprint car racing event on the globe. To win it is legendary. The winners are immortal, and are forever introduced as a “Knoxville Nationals Champion.”

I went to my first one in 1979 as an 11-year old with wide eyes watching Arizona’s Ron Shuman win his one and only Knoxville Nationals title. Shuman is a famous name in sprint car racing, as are other Nationals champions like Kinser, Wolfgang, Swindell, Lasoski, Schatz and Larson.

In the previous 63 events, there have been only 27 different winners. Steve Kinser has the most with 12. Donny Schatz is next with 11. 

Needless to say, there have been some repeat winners. Only 19 drivers – Roy Robbins (1961), Jerry Richert Sr. (1962), Greg Weld (1963), Jay Woodside (1966), Thad Dosher (1967), Ray Lee Goodwin (1968), Kenny Gritz (1969), Joe Saldana (1970), Jan Opperman (1971), Dick Gaines (1974), Ron Shuman (1979), Sammy Swindell (1983), Bobby Allen (1990), Dave Blaney (1997), Kraig Kinser (2005), Tim Shaffer (2010), Jason Johnson (2016), Brad Sweet (2018) and David Gravel (2019) – have won it once. 

And that can make it somewhat boring, and predictable. But Knoxville isn’t alone when it comes to a lack of parity. When the NCAA rolls out its popular 68-team basketball tournament every March, how many teams actually have a chance at winning it all? Maybe five, six?

Same with college football. Each fall, 134 stadiums are filled with FBS teams hoping for a national championship. But before the first ball is booted each August, again, there’s really only a handful of schools that have an actual shot at winning it all.

That being said, Knoxville should go fairly to script when engines are fired Aug. 6-9. Here’s my breakdown of who has the best chance of winning the Super Bowl of sprint car racing in two weeks.

BEST CHANCE
The champion will likely go to a regular on the World of Outlaws or High Limit Series. Kyle Larson is the two-time defending champion of the race. He led every lap in the 50-lap event in both 2023 and 2024. 

The last 100 laps of the Knoxville Nationals, all with Larson out front. Kinda boring, but damn, that fella can flat-out race.

Others in this group with the best chance to win include Rico Abreu, Sheldon Haudenschild, Gravel, Buddy Kofoid, Carson Macedo, Logan Schuchart and Sweet.

PUNCHER’S CHANCE

This group is also heavily represented with a number of drivers in the World of Outlaws and High Limit Series. If one of these guys wins the title, it would be a surprise, but not a shocker.

The group includes Schatz, who at 47 years of age, is looking to tie Kinser for the most titles. He won nine out of 10 Knoxville Nationals in the early 2000s.

Others in this group include Giovanni Scelzi, Ryan Timms, Brian Brown, Corey Day, and Aaron Reutzel.

OUTSIDE SHOT

The odds fall off dramatically in this group, but still, they’ve got a shot of making some noise. They include Anthony Macri, Kerry Madsen, Emerson Axsom, Bill Balog, Brent Marks, Justin Peck and Austin McCarl.

WAY, WAY OUTSIDE SHOT

Now if one of these dudes can pull off a Knoxville Nationals win, it would indeed be a shocker. They consistently run up front throughout the season, but a Knoxville Nationals title seems very unlikely.

The group includes Garet Williamson, who won a feature event last season at Huset’s. Others include Hunter Schuerenberg, Cole Macedo, Parker Price-Miller, Zach Hampton, James McFadden, Skylar Gee, Emerson Axsom, Brady Bacon, Spencer Bayston, Kasey Kahne, Daison Pursley and Chris Windom.

LONGEST OF LONG SHOTS

Everyone else. 

The Nationals is an event packed with prestige. It’s the reason more than 100 cars enter every year. In 1991, a record 166 teams made an attempt at the victory.

But each year, the vast majority have little-to-no chance of winning. 

If someone other than the names listed above wins the Knoxville Nationals this year, it would be the equivalent of Fairleigh Dickinson winning the NCAA basketball tournament.

ZERO CHANCE

Me.

I have neither the skillset nor courage to get behind the wheel of one of those suckers.

I’m just a sportswriter who’s been around this thing for a while.

You may disagree with my predictions. And to be honest, I hope I’m wrong. I’d love to see someone grab a Knoxville Nationals title who, on paper, has little shot of winning.

But I think I’m right.